Research Initiative
Quantitative risk intelligence
for construction projects.
Research-backed analysis of cost tail risk, regime severity, and portfolio contagion in commercial and infrastructure construction.
Request a research conversation →Peer-Reviewed Research
Published and peer-reviewed research.
The work underpinning Chronos Risk spans five research papers. The first has been accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed international journal; the remaining four are under review at Q1 journals in construction management, project management, and applied AI. The papers focus on quantitative risk modelling, regime detection, and portfolio-level contagion analysis.
Copula-based tail dependence in construction cost overruns
Global commodity transmission to Greek construction costs
Expected Shortfall and lifecycle decomposition of project cost risk
Regime detection for construction cost severity (LSTM-copula)
Portfolio-level cost contagion from public procurement data
Methodology
Three pillars of analysis.
The work approaches construction risk as a quantitative discipline - neither pure construction management nor pure financial modelling, but their intersection.
Tail-risk quantification
Gumbel-copula tail dependence combined with Expected Shortfall at the project level: materials spike together in a crisis, and independence assumptions understate the reserve a project actually needs. Exposure is decomposed by lifecycle phase, with confidence intervals on every figure.
Regime detection - a severity gauge, not a forecast
LSTM-copula classification of the current market regime (stable versus crisis), calibrated on the 2008 and 2020 episodes. The gauge is explicitly coincident: it sizes risk to today's market rather than predicting timing. The only validated lead used is the US-to-Greek producer-price transmission, of roughly one to four months on key materials.
Portfolio contagion modelling
Quantification of risk transmission across construction projects using public procurement data from the Greek Διαύγεια portal - over 200 sampled projects feeding the contagion graph.
Who This Is For
Built for institutional decision-makers.
Real estate developers and investment funds
Evaluating risk on individual projects and across portfolios at the underwriting stage.
Construction firms with portfolio exposure
Managing cost and schedule risk across concurrent projects and supply chains.
Financial institutions
Lending against construction projects, with exposure to cost overruns, regime shifts, and contagion effects.
Discovery Conversation
Twenty minutes. Confidential.
If you evaluate construction risk professionally, your perspective would meaningfully shape this research — which also underpins a specialised risk-assessment practice I am developing. The conversation itself is informal, confidential, and one-directional: I am here to listen, not to pitch.
Brief introduction by email is appreciated - your role, organization, and what drew you to the work. Scheduling is handled in the reply.