Research-backed practice - Athens
Know how much contingency your project actually needs - before you commit capital.
Chronos Risk sizes the reserve to the specific project - its material mix, its phase timing and the current state of the materials market - instead of applying a flat percentage. Built on peer-reviewed research into construction cost risk.
Recommended contingency
EUR 1.00M
12.5% of hard cost
Vs flat 7% rule
+EUR 0.44M
under-reserved by the rule
Superstructure tail risk
+13.0%
largest single exposure
Phase exposure, ES(99%)
1.88 / 4.52 / 2.38 M
foundation / superstructure / completion
Illustrative sample - fictional EUR 8.0M steel-portal logistics warehouse, synthetic inputs, computed under elevated-regime conditions. Not a forecast or an estimate for any real project.
What we do
One expensive decision, quantified.
Most development budgets carry a flat contingency - typically 5-10% - applied uniformly, regardless of what the project is made of or when its heavy phases land. Identical percentages imply very different downside exposure once material mix and project phase are included. Chronos Risk replaces the convention with a number built from the project's own risk profile.
Pre-investment assessment
A recommended reserve range for a specific project, the variables driving the downside, stress scenarios tested against covenant headroom, and a clear recommendation. Delivered as an institutional report with a confidence interval on every figure.
Decision preview (pilot)
For one active or recently completed project: the gap between the current contingency assumption and a project-specific reserve range under three clearly stated market scenarios. One project, one decision question, a short readout. The first step for most new relationships.
Quarterly monitoring
A Quarterly Executive Risk Memo: the reserve range recalculated as the project moves through phases and market regimes, covenant stress tests refreshed, and defined out-of-cycle updates when a material threshold is breached.
Built for
Real estate investors and developers - evaluating risk on individual projects and across portfolios at the underwriting stage.
Construction groups with portfolio exposure - managing cost risk across concurrent projects and supply chains.
Lenders - financing construction with exposure to cost overruns and covenant headroom.
Methods
How the numbers are produced.
The work approaches construction risk as a quantitative discipline - neither pure construction management nor pure financial modelling, but their intersection.
Tail-risk quantification
Gumbel-copula tail dependence combined with Expected Shortfall at the project level: materials spike together in a crisis, and independence assumptions understate the reserve a project actually needs. Exposure is decomposed by lifecycle phase, with confidence intervals on every figure.
Regime detection - a severity gauge, not a forecast
LSTM-copula classification of the current market regime (stable versus crisis), calibrated on the 2008 and 2020 episodes. The gauge is explicitly coincident: it sizes risk to today's market rather than predicting timing. The only validated lead used is the US-to-Greek producer-price transmission, of roughly one to four months on key materials.
Portfolio contagion modelling
Quantification of risk transmission across construction projects using public procurement data from the Greek Διαύγεια portal - over 200 sampled projects feeding the contagion graph.
Every assessment states its assumptions, its confidence intervals and what the model does not cover: quantity risk, execution risk and non-commodity cost sit outside the price-risk model and are disclosed as such.
Why Chronos Risk
Why this, and not a flat percentage.
Project-specific, not rule-of-thumb
The reserve is an output of the project's material weights, phase timing and the regime those phases will meet.
Decision-first
Every report opens with the reserve range, the drivers, the scenarios and the recommended action. The methodology sits underneath, not on top.
Transparent boundaries
Assumptions, confidence intervals and exclusions are stated on every figure. No precision beyond what the data supports.
Complementary to your QS
The quantity surveyor costs the project. Chronos Risk quantifies how far that cost can move with the materials market, on the QS's own numbers.
Peer-reviewed foundations
Peer-reviewed foundations.
The work underpinning Chronos Risk spans six research papers. Two have been accepted for publication in peer-reviewed international journals - the ASCE Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering and Construction Management and Economics; four are under review at international journals in construction management, project management and applied AI.
Copula-based tail dependence in construction cost overruns
Global commodity transmission to Greek construction costs
Expected Shortfall and lifecycle decomposition of project cost risk
Regime detection for construction cost severity (LSTM-copula)
Portfolio-level cost contagion from public procurement data
Cross-border co-movement of European construction costs
Contact
Start with a conversation.
If you evaluate construction cost risk professionally - as an investor, developer or lender - a 15-minute conversation is the right first step. No presentation. If the topic is relevant, the next step is a scoped decision preview on one of your projects.