Research Initiative
Quantitative risk intelligence
for construction projects.
Research-backed analysis of cost contagion, regime shifts, and portfolio risk in commercial and infrastructure construction.
Request a research conversation →Peer-Reviewed Research
Four research papers under peer review.
The work underpinning Chronos Risk is currently under peer review at Q1 international journals in construction management, project management, and applied AI. Papers focus on quantitative risk modelling, regime detection, and portfolio-level contagion analysis.
Cost regime detection using LSTM-copula architectures
Portfolio-level risk contagion in construction projects
Macroeconomic transmission to project-level cost dynamics
Machine learning frameworks for construction risk forecasting
Methodology
Three pillars of analysis.
The work approaches construction risk as a quantitative discipline - neither pure construction management nor pure financial modelling, but their intersection.
LSTM-Copula regime detection
Long Short-Term Memory neural networks combined with copula modelling to detect structural shifts in cost dynamics across commodity, labour, and financing inputs.
Portfolio contagion modelling
Quantification of risk transmission across construction projects using public procurement data from the Greek Διαύγεια portal - over 200 sampled projects feeding the contagion graph.
Cross-asset risk transmission
Joint modelling of construction cost factors with broader financial markets to identify exposure pathways from macroeconomic regimes into project-level outcomes.
Who This Is For
Built for institutional decision-makers.
Real estate developers and investment funds
Evaluating risk on individual projects and across portfolios at the underwriting stage.
Construction firms with portfolio exposure
Managing cost and schedule risk across concurrent projects and supply chains.
Financial institutions
Lending against construction projects, with exposure to cost overruns, regime shifts, and contagion effects.
Discovery Conversation
Twenty minutes. Confidential.
If you evaluate construction risk professionally, your perspective would meaningfully shape this research. The conversation is informal, confidential, and one-directional - I am here to listen, not to pitch.
Brief introduction by email is appreciated - your role, organization, and what drew you to the work. Scheduling is handled in the reply.